Millions More US Children To Experience Severe, Sustained And Frequent Heatwaves By 2050: UNICEF

NEW YORK (October 25, 2022) – 90 percent of children in the United States are currently exposed to high heatwave frequency, according to new research from UNICEF.

This is significantly higher than the global average of 24 percent. By 2050, the research finds all of the world’s 2.02 billion children are expected to be exposed to high heatwave frequency, regardless of whether the world achieves a ‘low greenhouse gas emission scenario’ with an estimated 1.7 degrees of warming in 2050 or a ‘very high greenhouse gas emission scenario’ with an estimated 2.4 degrees of warming in 2050.

During a year in which heatwaves in both the southern and northern hemispheres broke records, The Coldest Year Of The Rest Of Their Lives: Protecting Children From The Escalating Impacts Of Heatwaves highlights the already extensive impact of heatwaves on children globally and reveals that, even at lower levels of global heating, in just three decades, more regular heatwaves are unavoidable for children everywhere.

The report finds a two-fold increase in the number of children in the United States exposed to both severe and sustained heatwaves is likely by 2050 under the ‘low greenhouse gas emission scenario’. Under the ‘very high greenhouse gas emission scenario’, a four-fold increase in the number of children exposed to each measure is expected.

Produced in collaboration with The Data for Children Collaborative and launched in partnership with UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Vanessa Nakate and Africa-based Rise Up Movement, these findings underscore the urgent need to adapt the services children rely on as unavoidable impacts of global heating unfold. It also makes a case for continued mitigation, to prevent the worst impacts of the other high heat measures, including longer and hotter heatwaves and higher extreme temperatures.

“The mercury is rising and so are the impacts on children,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said. “Already, one in three children live in countries that face extreme high temperatures and almost one in four children are exposed to high heatwave frequency, and it is only going to get worse. More children will be impacted by longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves over the next thirty years, threatening their health and wellbeing. How devastating these changes will be depends on the actions we take now. At a minimum, governments must urgently limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius and double adaptation funding by 2025. This is the only way to save children’s lives and futures – and the future of the planet.”

Heatwaves are especially damaging to children, as they are less able to regulate their body temperature compared to adults. The more heatwaves children are exposed to, the greater the chance of health problems including chronic respiratory conditions, asthma, and cardiovascular diseases. Babies and young children are at the greatest risk of heat-related mortality. Heatwaves can also affect children’s environments, their safety, nutrition and access to water, and their education and future livelihood.

USA	2020	% of child pop	2050 Low emissions scenario	% of child pop	2050 Very high emissions scenario	% of child pop
High heatwave frequency	65.6m	89%	81.4m	100%	94.3m	100%
High heatwave duration	22m	30%	43.9m	54%	83.3m	88%
High heatwave severity	11.8m	16%	28.4m	35%	47.3m	50%
Extreme high temperatures	1.9m	3%	6.8m	8%	12m	13%

The report found high heatwave duration currently impacts 22 million, or 30 percent, of children in the US. This will rise to 43.9 million children in 2050 under the low emissions scenario, and 83.3 million children under the high emissions scenario, emphasizing the importance of urgent and dramatic emissions mitigation and adaptation measures to contain global heating and protect children.

Millions more children will be also exposed to high heatwave severity, with numbers forecast to increase from 11.8 million currently to 28.4 million and 47.3 million respectively.

Extreme high temperatures are also a concern for American children, with an additional 10 million children expected to be exposed to prolonged temperatures at high levels under the very high emissions scenario, compared to current levels. Globally, by 2050, nearly half of all children in Africa and Asia will face sustained exposure to extreme high temperatures.  Currently 23 countries fall into the highest category for child exposure to extreme high temperatures. This will rise to 33 countries by 2050 under the low emissions scenario and 36 countries under the very high emissions scenario. Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Sudan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, India and Pakistan are among the countries likely to remain in the highest category in both scenarios.

“The climate shocks of 2022 provided a strong wakeup call about the increasing danger hurtling towards us,” said Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. “Heatwaves are a clear example. As hot as this year has been in almost every corner of the world, it will likely be the coldest year of the rest of our lives. The dial is being turned up on our planet and yet our world leaders haven’t begun to sweat. The only option is for us to continue to turn up the heat - on them - to correct the course we are on. World leaders must do this at COP27 for children everywhere, but especially the most vulnerable children in the most affected places. Unless they take action, and soon, this report makes it clear that heatwaves will become even harsher than they are already destined to be.”

UNICEF is calling on governments to:

• PROTECT children from climate devastation by adapting social services. Every country must adapt critical social services - water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), health, education, nutrition, social protection and child protection – to protect children and young people. For example, food systems must be strengthened to withstand hazards and ensure continued access to healthy diets. Increased investments must be made in the early prevention, detection and treatment of severe malnutrition in children, mothers and vulnerable populations. At COP27, children and their rights must be prioritized in decisions on adaptation.
• PREPARE children to live in a climate-changed world. Every country must provide children and young people with climate change education, disaster risk reduction education, green skills training and opportunities to meaningfully participate and influence climate policy making. COP27 must see countries strengthen the focus on children's climate education and empowerment in the ACE action plan, adopt it, and implement previous commitments to build youth capacity.
• PRIORITIZE children and young people in climate finance and resources. Developed countries must deliver on their COP26 agreement to double adaptation funding to $40 billion per year by 2025 at a minimum, as a step to delivering at least $300 billion per year for adaptation by 2030. Adaptation funding must make up half of all climate finance. COP27 must unlock progress on loss and damage, placing the resilience of children and their communities at the center of discussions on action and support. 
• PREVENT a climate catastrophe by drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions and keep 1.5 degrees Celsius alive. Emissions are projected to rise by 14 percent this decade, putting us on a path to catastrophic global heating. All governments must revisit their national climate plans and policies to increase ambition and action. They must cut emissions by at least 45 percent by 2030 to keep heating to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Learn more about how UNICEF is working to protect children from climate devastation.

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About UNICEF
The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) works in more than 190 countries and territories to pursue a more equitable world for every child. UNICEF has helped save more children’s lives than any other humanitarian organization, by providing health care and immunizations, safe water and sanitation, nutrition, education, emergency relief and more.

UNICEF USA advances the global mission of UNICEF by rallying the American public to support the world’s most vulnerable children. Together, we are working toward a world that upholds the rights of all children and helps every child thrive. For more information, visit www.unicefusa.org.

For more information please contact:
Jenna Buraczenski, UNICEF USA, (917) 720-1432, jburaczenski@unicefusa.org